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Back in 1999, Robert G. Hagstrom wrote a book about the legendary investor Warren Buffett, entitled “The Warren Buffett Portfolio”. What’s so great about the book, and what makes it different from the countless other books and articles written about the “Oracle of Omaha” is that it offers the reader valuable insight into how Buffett actually thinks about investments. In other words, the book delves into the psychological mindset that has made Buffett so fabulously wealthy. (For more on Warren Buffett and his current holdings, check out Coattail Investor.)

Although investors could benefit from reading the entire book, we’ve selected a bite-sized sampling of the tips and suggestions regarding the investor mindset and ways that an investor can improve their stock selection that will help you get inside Buffett’s head.

1. Think of Stocks as a Business

Many investors think of stocks and the stock market in general as nothing more than little pieces of paper being traded back and forth among investors, which might help prevent investors from becoming too emotional over a given position but it doesn’t necessarily allow them to make the best possible investment decisions.

That’s why Buffett has stated he believes stockholders should think of themselves as “part owners” of the business in which they are investing. By thinking that way, both Hagstrom and Buffett argue that investors will tend to avoid making off-the-cuff investment decisions, and become more focused on the longer term. Furthermore, longer-term “owners” also tend to analyze situations in greater detail and then put a great eal of thought into buy and sell decisions. Hagstrom says this increased thought and analysis tends to lead to improved investment returns.

2. Increase the Size of Your Investment

While it rarely – if ever – makes sense for investors to “put all of their eggs in one basket,” putting all your eggs in too many baskets may not be a good thing either. Buffett contends that over-diversification can hamper returns as much as a lack of diversification. That’s why he doesn’t invest in mutual funds. It’s also why he prefers to make significant investments in just a handful of companies.

Buffett is a firm believer that an investor must first do his or her homework before investing in any security. But after that due diligence process is completed, an investor should feel comfortable enough to dedicate a sizable portion of assets to that stock. They should also feel comfortable in winnowing down their overall investment portfolio to a handful of good companies with excellent growth prospects.

Buffett’s stance on taking time to properly allocate your funds is furthered with his comment that it’s not just about the best company, but how you feel about the company. If the best business you own presents the least financial risk and has the most favorable long-term prospects, why would you put money into your 20th favorite business rather than add money to the top choices?

3. Reduce Portfolio Turnover

Rapidly trading in and out of stocks can potentially make an individual a lot of money, but according to Buffett this trader is actually hampering his or her investment returns. That’s because portfolio turnover increases the amount of taxes that must be paid on capital gains and boosts the total amount of commission dollars that must be paid in a given year.

The “Oracle” contends that what makes sense in business also makes sense in stocks: An investor should ordinarily hold a small piece of an outstanding business with the same tenacity that an owner would exhibit if he owned all of that business.

Investors must think long term. By having that mindset, they can avoid paying huge commission fees and lofty short-term capital gains taxes. They’ll also be more apt to ride out any short-term fluctuations in the business, and to ultimately reap the rewards of increased earnings and/or dividends over time.

4. Develop Alternative Benchmarks

While stock prices may be the ultimate barometer of the success or failure of a given investment choice, Buffett does not focus on this metric. Instead, he analyzes and pores over the underlying economics of a given business or group of businesses. If a company is doing what it takes to grow itself on a profitable basis, then the share price will ultimately take care of itself.

Successful investors must look at the companies they own and study their true earnings potential. If the fundamentals are solid and the company is enhancing shareholder value by generating consistent bottom-line growth, the share price, in the long term, should reflect that.

5. Learn to Think in Probabilities

Bridge is a card game in which the most successful players are able to judge mathematical probabilities to beat their opponents. Perhaps not surprisingly, Buffett loves and actively plays the game, and he takes the strategies beyond the game into the investing world.

Buffett suggests that investors focus on the economics of the companies they own (in other words the underlying businesses), and then try to weigh the probability that certain events will or will not transpire, much like a Bridge player checking the probabilities of his opponents’ hands. He adds that by focusing on the economic aspect of the equation and not the stock price, an investor will be more accurate in his or her ability to judge probability.

Thinking in probabilities has its advantages. For example, an investor that ponders the probability that a company will report a certain rate of earnings growth over a period of five or 10 years is much more apt to ride out short-term fluctuations in the share price. By extension, this means that his investment returns are likely to be superior and that he will also realize fewer transaction and/or capital gains costs.

6. Recognize the Psychological Aspects of Investing

Very simply, this means that individuals must understand that there is a psychological mindset that the successful investor tends to have. More specifically, the successful investor will focus on probabilities and economic issues and let decisions be ruled by rational, as opposed to emotional, thinking.

More than anything, investors’ own emotions can be their worst enemy. Buffett contends that the key to overcoming emotions is being able to “retain your belief in the real fundamentals of the business and to not get too concerned about the stock market.”

Investors should realize that there is a certain psychological mindset that they should have if they want to be successful and try to implement that mindset.

7. Ignore Market Forecasts

There is an old saying that the Dow “climbs a wall of worry”. In other words, in spite of the negativity in the marketplace, and those who perpetually contend that a recession is “just around the corner”, the markets have fared quite well over time. Therefore, doomsayers should be ignored.

On the other side of the coin, there are just as many eternal optimists who argue that the stock market is headed perpetually higher. These should be ignored as well.

In all this confusion, Buffett suggests that investors should focus their efforts of isolating and investing in shares that are not currently being accurately valued by the market. The logic here is that as the stock market begins to realize the company’s intrinsic value(through higher prices and greater demand), the investor will stand to make a lot of money.

8. Wait for the Fat Pitch

Hagstrom’s book uses the model of legendary baseball player Ted Williams as an example of a wise investor. Williams would wait for a specific pitch (in an area of the plate where he knew he had a high probability of making contact with the ball) before swinging. It is said that this discipline enabled Williams to have a higher lifetime batting average than the average player.

Buffett, in the same way, suggests that all investors act as if they owned a lifetime decision card with only 20 investment choice punches in it. The logic is that this should prevent them from making mediocre investment choices and hopefully, by extension, enhance the overall returns of their respective portfolios.

Bottom Line

“The Warren Buffett Portfolio” is a timeless book that offers valuable insight into the psychological mindset of the legendary investor Warren Buffett. Of course, if learning how to invest like Warren Buffett were as easy as reading a book, everyone would be rich! But if you take that time and effort to implement some of Buffett’s proven strategies, you could be on your way to better stock selection and greater returns.

Many retailers give options for replacing missing cards

By Melody Warnick

The reason so many of us love gift cards — they’re a lot like cash — is also the reason they can be hard to replace when they’re stolen or lost. Some retailers, including Wal-Mart, even put the onus exclusively on the consumer and refuse to replace lost or stolen gift cards altogether. However, in most cases, there are steps you can take to ensure that you haven’t just thrown away $50 if that gift card accidentally ends up in the trash.

With an estimated $66 billion in gift cards purchased in 2008, chances are good that you’re hanging on to one or two (or five or six), and you may not know precisely where some of them are. If your card is lost or stolen, most retailers (see chart below) are sympathetic — but only if you can prove that you actually purchased the card.

“The receipt is your first line of defense if you lose a card,” says Kwame Kuadey, founder of GiftCardBlogger.com. “If you lose the receipt and lose the card, you’re pretty much out of luck.”

What to do when your gift card goes astray
If you held on to your receipt — or if the generous soul who gave you the gift card in the first place can produce one — contact the retailer immediately. Most maintain toll-free numbers (available on the card itself or, since that’s gone, on the store’s Web site) manned by customer service representatives who can cancel the card and work on issuing you a new one.

If it’s a store card, you shouldn’t have to pay for the replacement; similarly, American Express now offers to replace lost or stolen gift cards for free (if you have the original card number). With other bank-issued gift cards — for instance, one from Visa or MasterCard — expect a replacement fee of $5 to $15.

No receipt? A few stores may offer a replacement over the phone if you have the gift card number. Otherwise, even a credit card statement proving that you made a $50 transaction at The Gap won’t be sufficient, since the purchase could have been for anything.

Your only other outs include trying to get reimbursement from PayPal or your credit card company if you ordered a card online and it never arrived, or replacing a gift card stolen from your home through your homeowner’s or renter’s insurance coverage. (Check your policy for coverage details.)

Prevention and protection
Even with a receipt in hand, it’s a hassle to cancel and then replace a lost or stolen gift card. Here’s how to keep your cards safer now and how some of these steps can make your life easier if a card does go missing:

1. Track your card in a virtual wallet. At sites such as LeverageCard.com and PlasticJungle.com, you can record gift card numbers and PINs and track balances online. Plus, you may earn extra protection from the site itself. For instance, PlasticJungle.com will contact a retailer on your behalf to replace a lost card that’s registered in your online wallet.
2. Register your card with the retailer. Starbucks cardholders who register their gift card number at Starbucks.com get automatic balance protection and hassle-free card replacement in case of loss or theft. Also, if they use the card in the store after registering, they earn perks such as free refills on drip coffee or two hours of complimentary Wi-Fi.
3. Shop online. To make a purchase online, you only need the gift card number, which could help if you misplaced the actual plastic. “I order pizza a lot, always online or over the phone, so there’s no reason for me to ever have that piece of plastic,” says Jennifer Mathe, co-founder of LeverageCard.com. “I register the card, and then I shred it.” Even Wal-Mart allows customers to input gift card numbers on its Web site and make online purchases later.
4. Use your card quickly. One survey estimates that one-third of gift cards — over $20 billion worth — still haven’t been spent six months after they’re received. “People hold on to these cards and forget where they put them,” says Kuadey. “Using the card immediately not only prevents it from getting lost, but protects you if the company goes bankrupt.”
5. Safeguard your card from fraud. “A gift card looks exactly the same whether it has a zero balance or $100 on it,” says Tina Henson, founder of PlasticJungle.com. Even if you have the card itself, someone could steal your balance. High-tech fraudsters scan or copy card numbers in stores, then spend the money online as soon as the card is activated, leaving you with a worthless piece of plastic. When you purchase a gift card, watch out for scratches or signs of tampering. Or avoid the problem altogether by purchasing e-certificates from online retailers such as Amazon.com.

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Can I afford to retire?

In the wake of the financial crisis, this question and its obvious follow-up — How can I better prepare? — are weighing on many people.

If you’re among them, help is at hand. Financial-services companies, eager to tap the baby-boomer market, are rolling out programs that offer, at little or no cost, a detailed assessment of whether you’re in danger of outliving your savings. Along the way, you’ll also receive advice on what to do if your savings are deemed insufficient and how best to tap your nest egg, or what’s left of it.

What’s the catch? First, there’s work involved; the programs can take hours to complete. Second, each company typically pairs you with a financial planner, who — not surprisingly — is likely to try to interest you in that company’s products. Finally, the programs focus on saving and investing; if you need guidance on other matters, such as estate or tax planning, you may be better off elsewhere.

That said, these services, for the most part, are a good mix of analysis, one-on-one advice and modest costs. As such, they can help you start or enhance your retirement planning.

Many American households, wealthy or not, don’t need enough hand-holding “to justify spending more than a few hundred dollars on financial planning,” says Chip Roame, managing principal at Tiburon Strategic Advisors, a Tiburon, Calif., consulting company that specializes in the financial-services industry. For many people, he adds, these programs “are a good fit.”

To help you sort through the options in this fast-growing area, we tested services, new and established, offered by four companies.

We asked each to provide a financial plan for Jack and Rose Ryan, a fictional couple we endowed with about $1.2 million in savings, plus a $600,000 home in Evanston, Ill. Concerned about job security, Jack — a 60-year-old executive at a newspaper company — wants to know whether he can afford to retire at 63. His wife, a 58-year-old public-school teacher with a generous pension, wants to retire around the same time.

The results? For the most part, the advice fell within conventional retirement-planning wisdom. Most of the firms, for instance, advised the Ryans to take the same basic steps, such as paring expenses and diversifying their stock holdings.

Still, there were important differences among the firms. Some caught possible problems others overlooked. Some mainly recommended their own products, while others were more eclectic in approach. More generally, some were considerably more optimistic than others about how long the Ryans’ savings would last.

Here’s what we found:

Fidelity Retirement Income Planner

Source: WSJ Reporting

Cost: Free of charge, and suited to those within five years of retirement.

What’s Involved: As with the other programs we tested, this one starts with a questionnaire that asks for estimates of retirement income and expenses. You will also have to disclose the contents of your brokerage, tax-deferred and other savings accounts. Of the questionnaires we completed, this was the most detailed and time-consuming. It took us about 90 minutes. There’s a shorter version for those who already have a budget worked out.

Hand-Holding: We took a stab at completing the survey ourselves on Fidelity Investments’ Web site. But we felt more comfortable relying on a Fidelity adviser — David Olsen, a regional planning consultant — for help with navigating some of the software’s more sophisticated features, such as a tool that allows users to vary expense estimates from year to year. We spoke to Mr. Olsen by phone, but we could have opted to work instead with an adviser in one of the firm’s 132 retail offices. Typically, advisers and clients have two or three meetings.

We also gauged the company’s thinking on a critical issue: How much do the Ryans need to budget for medical expenses? Using projections from government and academic sources, the software gave us an estimate of almost $13,000 annually at the outset of retirement — an expense Fidelity assumes will rise by 7 percent annually, a much faster rate than the 2.3 percent for overall inflation.

(As with the other programs we surveyed, we could have asked Fidelity to adjust some of these numbers to better reflect the Ryans’ situation or outlook.)

Advice: After looking at 250 simulations of possible future market returns, Fidelity concluded that the Ryans are at significant risk of running out of money by their early 90s. (All the programs assume you’ll live at least that long.)

To create a bigger safety net, Fidelity told us to put $370,000, or about 30 percent of the couple’s $1.193 million nest egg, into a fixed immediate annuity, which would generate about $22,500 in annual income. (Fidelity offers various other firms’ annuities.) Together, the Ryans’ Social Security, pension and annuity income would cover their essential expenses, such as food and housing — at least at the outset of retirement, since the annuity payment does not increase over time.

Mr. Olsen also suggested the Ryans consider trimming their $10,000 annual travel budget or downsizing by selling their $600,000 home. Alternatively, he said, they could work longer or pick up some part-time work in retirement. He advised them to consider budgeting for big-ticket items, such as new car purchases and the costs of long-term care. He suggested they might consider funding some of this with the $3,600 they now spend annually on life insurance.

Portfolio Construction: Like the other services we tested, this one fits clients into one of a preset menu of model portfolios. In Fidelity’s case, there are six. Because the Ryans face a potential shortfall, Fidelity recommended they reduce their exposure to equities — to 20 percent of their portfolio from 40 percent — and better preserve what they have. (If the couple were to get their finances into better shape, Mr. Olsen says, he’d recommend they ultimately increase their stock exposure to about 50 percent of the portfolio.)

As with the other services, Fidelity advised the Ryans to sell some of the IBM stock that accounts for 13 percent of their holdings. Once a single stock makes up more than 10 percent of a portfolio, it raises “a red flag,” Mr. Olsen said.

Plan Monitoring: Fidelity told us about its myPlan Monitor & Alerts service. Available online, it lets investors track investments held both at Fidelity and elsewhere. If what they have in stocks and bonds differs from what their financial plan says they should have, Fidelity will send an email alert.

Vanguard Financial Plan

Source: WSJ Reporting

Cost: What you’ll pay depends on how much money you have at Vanguard Group Inc. The program is free for people who have at least $500,000 with Vanguard. It’s also free for those who move $100,000 or more to Vanguard. The cost is $250 for people with existing balances of $100,000 to $500,000, or $1,000 for those with less.

What’s Involved: The process at Vanguard was relatively efficient. A couple of days after filling out a questionnaire that took us approximately 30 minutes to complete, we received a draft of the Ryans’ financial plan via email. On the phone, we discussed ways to improve the Ryans’ prospects with our planner, Mark Yakupcin. Later that evening, Mr. Yakupcin sent us a revised plan.

Hand-Holding: Each client typically receives one 45- to 60-minute telephone consultation. Most clients “wouldn’t need another,” Mr. Yakupcin said. (He gave us some extra time.)

When we asked Mr. Yakupcin how much the Ryans ought to set aside for medical expenses, he referred us to Web sites, including medicare.gov and aarp.org, that would help us come up with an amount. Karin Risi, principal of advice services at Vanguard, said that with real clients, Vanguard financial planners “lead clients through a robust discussion about the variables that will impact their medical spending needs.”

Advice: After running more than 80 simulations of stock-market returns, Vanguard delivered bad news: The Ryans’ odds of having enough money to last until age 95 were far below the 85 percent Vanguard considers acceptable. Mr. Yakupcin suggested Jack and Rose work until ages 66 and 64, respectively — or pare expenses dramatically.

Portfolio Construction: Mr. Yakupcin urged the Ryans to increase their exposure to stocks to 50 percent from 40 percent. Such a portfolio — one of nine Vanguard offers — is consistent with the Ryans’ time horizon and risk tolerance.

When it comes to selecting new investments, Vanguard recommends only its own mutual funds. However, if you want to hold onto other companies’ products, Vanguard will plan around that. The company, in fact, builds two portfolios for each client. The first starts with current holdings you want to keep and adds Vanguard funds that can enhance diversification. The second assumes you’ll move most or all of your assets over to Vanguard products — a move that typically reduces annual expenses, the company says.

In both cases, Vanguard advised us to dump more than half of the Ryans’ $151,000 of IBM stock and plow the proceeds into two Vanguard funds: Vanguard Total Stock Market Index and Vanguard Value Index.

Plan Monitoring: Those with $500,000 or more at Vanguard can reassess their plan every year and revise it if necessary. Otherwise, you must pay for another analysis.

The Chancellor stands to receive £2 billion of Goldman Sachs’s record-breaking compensation pool if the Wall Street bank continues its winning streak (see Commentary, facing page).

David Viniar, the chief financial officer, said yesterday that, barring “some disaster” in the fourth quarter, he expected to pay the staff more than the $10.9 billion they shared last year after profits were hit hard by the credit crunch.

A spokesman said that Goldman Sachs and its British bankers would hand over about £2 billion in corporate and personal tax for 2009 if the bank continued accruing compensation at the present rate. This is equivalent to tax payments of £370,700 for each of Goldman Sachs’s 5,500 London-based workers.

With a return to strong profits this year, the bank had been putting aside almost half of its revenues to pay salaries, benefits and bonuses to its 30,700 staff, building its compensation pool to $16.7 billion by the end of the third quarter.

The prospect of a $544,364 (£335,000) average payout for staff, with still another quarter in which to earn before the end of the year, has infuriated lawmakers and taxpayers, who gave the bank $10 billion at the height of the financial meltdown.

However, Mr Viniar insisted that Goldman Sachs was conscious of the hardship the recession was causing for people outside Wall Street. He said: “We’re very focused on what’s going on in the world, what’s going on in the economic environment.

“But we’re also focused on our franchise and being fair to our people, who we think have performed admirably through the entire crisis. That’s something we’re weighing up.”

Mr Viniar said that the bank was considering whether to raise the proportion of its compensation paid in equity, as other banks have done in response to pressure to tie bonuses better to banks’ performances.

“We’ve always paid a lot of our bonuses in stock, deferred and divesting over time, but we’re looking at those programmes and a decision will be made at the end of the year,” he said. Goldman Sachs reported a higher-than-expected net profit of almost $3.2 billion for the third quarter. It poured $5.3 billion into its compensation pool, up 46 per cent on the comparable quarter last year.

Although less than the $6.6 billion put away in the second quarter, the bank’s third-quarter compensation allocation still puts the bank on track to beat its 2007 record compensation pool of about $21 billion. Lloyd Blankfein, the chief executive of Goldman Sachs, said that business conditions were improving.

Net revenue was 105 per cent higher than last year at $12.3 billion. Revenue fell in investment banking by 31 per cent year on year to $889 million as clients held off on making acquisitions. Revenue from trading and principal investments, which includes trading done with the bank’s own funds, soared by more than 260 per cent to $8.8 billion as fixed income and equities performed strongly. Shares in Goldman Sachs closed at $188.63, down $3.65, or 1.9 per cent.

Lord Mandelson, the Business Secretary, warned last night that the City was witnessing an “unacceptable return” to past practices on bonuses.

He said that the Financial Services Authority could force banks to increase their capital ratios if they were deemed to have handed out excessive rewards to high-earning staff.

Resource : business.timesonline.co.uk

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